[Scpg] Resilient Cities - planners post their visions/Critical questions about Transition Movement and David Holmgren's Future Scenarios

[Wesley Roe and Santa Barbara Permaculture Network]

Resilient Cities - planners post their visions
Sat, Jul 11, 2009
Book reviews
http://pacific-edge.info/?p=200

A couple weeks ago, I received a phone call from 
a woman in the Department of Prime Minister and 
Cabinet. She wanted to know if the Department 
could use a short piece from something I had 
written in a set of guidelines they were 
producing. The guidelines, she explained, were 
for other levels of government and institutions 
to use when thinking about how to make 
communities more resilient. It was then that it 
dawned on me just how far this notion of 
resilient communities has gone and how broad is 
the depth of interest in it.

In the community sector, the term 'resilient 
communities' is heard among those active in the 
relatively new Transtions Initiative groups 
(www.transitionsydney.org.au). There, it 
summarises a range of ideas on how societies can 
adapt to the synchronous impact of peak oil and 
climate change.
Transition Initiatives, however, are far from the 
only ones using the term. That was reinforced for 
me while in Gleebooks one day. There, while 
perusing the environment titles shelves, I came 
across a paperback, the collective work of three 
authors: Peter Newman, professor of 
sustainability at Curtin University in WA, author 
of Cities as Sustainable Ecosystems (2007, Island 
Press) - Peter Newman was once the NSW 
Sustainabilty Commissioner - Timothy Beatley, 
professor of Sustainable Communities at the 
University of Virginia and author of Green 
Urbanism Down Under (2008, Island Press); and 
Heather Boyer, senior editor at Island Press and 
Loeb Fellow at the Harvard Graduate School of 
Design. None of these are intellectual light 
weights and what they say must be taken with more 
than a grain of seriousness.

And the book - it was called Resilient Cities - 
responding to peak oil and climate change. 
http://www.resilientcitiesbook.org/

Necessary reading
This is exactly the sort of book Transition 
Initiative people and their fellow travelers, 
permaculturists, should take the time to read. 
The synchronous peak oil-climate change challenge 
to our resource intensive cities is analysed, as 
is the nature of the climatic and energy threats. 
After creating a typology of four urban future 
scenarios, the authors go on to describe visions 
and hopes for sustainable cities. What is good is 
that there are many examples of positive 
responses drawn from Australia

What is also of interest, to those active in the 
permaculture and Transition movements, anyway, is 
the revelation of how permaculture is perceived 
by planning and design professionals working in 
education and sustainability practice. The 
authors certainly take permaculture seriously, 
however they remain critical of its approach to 
an oil-depleted and climatically-altered future 
for our cities.

Why this is important is because these people are 
influential. They frame thinking about 
permaculture and affect how others perceive it. 
Permaculture, Transitions and related approaches 
to sustainable development at the community level 
all circulate in the public marketplace for 
ideas, something that makes how they are 
perceived critical to their future opportunities.

This is revealed in the chapter describing four 
scenarios for the future of cities. Drawing up 
scenarios is a way of thinking about the future 
that has now been in use for decades and has been 
adopted by a range of organisations in society, 
including business. One of its advantages is that 
it engages the imagination to envision 
alternative futures based on current and likely 
events and trends, as well as unexpected events, 
and allows you to step out along exploratory 
pathways of the imagination in considering how 
things could unfold from different starting 
conditions and how they might be responded to.

What becomes clear as you read the book is that 
the authors are familiar with the different 
scenarios, including those of Richard Heinberg 
and David Holmgren. Heinberg, an American, toured 
with David Holmgren several years ago to alert 
Australian audiences to the challenge offered by 
the peaking of global oil supplies. The authors 
have done their research and, to that, they add 
their extensive and more than credible knowledge 
developed of years of experience.

The four urban scenarios the authors explore are: 
collapse, ruralisation, the divided city and the 
resilient city. Transition and permaculture 
interests might wonder why the ruralised city and 
the resilient city are treated separately, for 
surely they are the same? Hasn't permaculture's 
Bill Mollison and David Holmgren painted them as 
such? Well, it turns out that they are not the 
same and that, for the authors, the resilient 
city is the preferred future.

Collapse
The collapse scenario is familiar - the 
synchronous impact of peak oil and climate change 
combine to create a descending spiralŠ price 
rises for fuels and food hit the less affluent 
hardestŠ markets change as household funds are 
diverted from discretionary spending into buying 
increasingly costly basic needs, businesses 
collapse, jobs disappear, family and mortgage 
stress increases, family homelessness (already a 
phenomenon in Australia in the current recession) 
becomes more common and, as a result of this 
trend, a climate of fear and panic descends.

This is likely be be felt more keenly, the 
authors say, in the newer, outer ring of suburbs 
that have grown up on the assumption of a 
continuous supply of relatively cheap vehicle 
fuel. Out there, car reliance is a basic given, 
public transport is not particularly effective at 
moving people to and from workplace, commercial 
centre and shopping mall and walking and cycling 
simply are not options due to distance and lack 
of safe cycling facilities. These distant suburbs 
are vulnerable suburbs in a situation of energy 
and climate stress.

In a climate of despair, family and community 
stress, the fear that sets in starts to manifest 
as panic. Opportunities for adaptive responses 
collapse as the resilience of civil society goes 
into freefall. Those who remain in the vulnerable 
suburbs live on whatever meagre resources a 
society tumbling into recession can provide. 
Others move on.


We can imagine this. Just as in the Great 
Depression of the 1930s, shanty towns and tent 
cities appear. And just as in those years, this 
triggers social resistance by the more affluent, 
the employed middle class and environmentalists 
who press the authorities to remove the squatter 
camps from their view and off of nature reserves 
and national parks. Quickly, a social fracture 
becomes a social chasm.
According to the authors, this is the type of 
future that stems from the denial of peak oil and 
climate change. It is as Thomas Homer Dixon wrote 
in The Upside of Down - that it is when resource, 
environmental and social stresses combine in 
synchrounous failure that social and personal 
support systems start to fail.

This is a bleak future that has a certain appeal 
to the apocalyptic mindset. That mindset is more 
prevalent in the US than in Australia and New 
Zealand, however it is being talked up here, too, 
the authors suggest.

Bill Mollison and David Holmgren (co-originators 
of the permaculture design concept) and Ted 
Trained (a UNSW lecturer who has written 
extensively on future scenarios and 
sustainability) have warned that our present 
society may find it difficult to adapt to the 
potential impact of peak oil and climate change, 
especially if their impacts start to be felt at 
the same time.

None, however, say that we should accept collapse 
in the way that some peak oilers (those who see 
peak oil as, primarily, a collapse scenario) do 
with what the authors say is their often 
overstated rhetoric. They say that in Energy 
Bulletin, edition 6.6.04, David Holmgren is 
reported as portraying such a doomsayer vision of 
a peak oil future.

The divided city
This model is one unconducive to achieving urban 
sustainability. It is of a model the city divided 
along the lines of social class, with wealth a 
determinant of sustainable living.
It was years ago that I first found this model 
described in a novel. That book portrayed 
American society of what was the near future, a 
society in which the less affluent masses lived 
in socially and environmentally decaying suburbs 
in which there was limited opportunity. The 
wealthier occupied what we would now call 
ecovillages - in effect, they were gated 
communities in which the residents enjoyed the 
benefits of renewable energy systems and other 
technologies of sustainability, and the security 
that comes from having guards on the gates.

We already have gated communities, the most 
effective barrier of entry to which is less the 
guards than the cost of the real estate. The 
products of social fear and exclusivity, they are 
increasingly criticised by planners. They 
sometimes have regulations that in effect become 
a form of social control. In this, they have some 
parallel with some ecovillages in which aspects 
of behaviour may be constrained, such as the 
colours you can paint your house, how you can 
make use of your land, what types of domestic 
animals you cannot keep, the discouragement of 
informal, uninvited visitation to the ecovillage 
and so on. For the most part, such restrictions 
are based on environmental considerations, and 
while this is both reasonable and responsible, it 
is often only one particular take on people and 
their environment. Nonetheless, it is this that 
distinguishes authentic ecovillages from gated 
communities.

The divided city is one in which this social 
divide is also an opportunity divide. It is not a 
model for sustainable urbanisation.

The ruralised city
Those in permaculture and some in the Transition 
Initiative movement will be familiar with the 
ruralised city model. The scenario goes like this 
- as climate change and peak oil make their 
combined impacts felt, a demographic and 
agricultural renaissance takes place in the 
suburbs of Australian cities as they are 
transformed into places where food, fuelwood and 
fibre are produced.

This is an evolutionary scenario in that it takes 
place over time. It is based on a household-led 
renaissance in which suburban houses become 
multigenerational, extended family locales amid 
the new, urban fields of food and fuel. It is a 
vision very much along the lines of conventional 
permaculture thinking and is even one that people 
have here and there sought to give birth to where 
they have removed fences between adjoining 
properties and shared resources. Ted Trainer, in 
particular, has been a strong advocate of this 
vision of the city.

Those instances, few they might be, where 
neighbours remove fences and share resources have 
been exemplary, however they have proven largely 
unreplicable, not because the idea is unworkable 
but because there has been no broad motivation 
and because urban populations are often mobile 
populations, a situation in which linking 
adjoining properties and sharing space is 
unlikely to endure.
Elsewhere, the authors acknowledge that urban 
agriculture is a good thing, however they agree 
that David Holmgren's vision of the rurualised 
city is a flawed one. Their objections follow.

Urban sprawl
David's model encourages urban sprawl. Its focus 
on the detached suburban dwelling would see the 
further spread of the suburbs and the further 
loss of our urban fringe farmlands, already 
threatened in Sydney and Melbourne by urban 
development (52 percent of Sydney's existing 
market gardens and small scale farming 
enterprises are in the state government's urban 
growth areas).
The model thus threatens the resiliency of the cities.

The individualisation of the problems
A focus on the ruralised city and the suburban 
house as the centre of adaptation to peak oil and 
climate change individualises both the problem 
and the solution. The authors assert that 
individual, uncoordinated approaches to 
sustainable living will not achieve desirable 
outcomes. What is needed are region-wide 
solutions, not just the one-offs that rely on the 
individual initiatives of householders. Those 
exemplary initiatives need to be scaled-up and 
made affordable and accessible to thousands.

Helena Norberg-Hodge, of the International 
Society for Ecology and Culture and a leading 
figure promoting community-based, urban food 
systems in the UK, has warned against the 
individualisation of responsibility for our 
environmental problems and against the placing of 
responsblity solely upon householders and 
individuals. This, she suggests, allows industry, 
government and institutions to avoid their share 
of responsibility.

Whatsmore, the individualised approach is 
socially inequitable, being dependent upon home 
ownership and access to sufficient affluence to 
fund the changes. The continuity of that 
affluence into a period marked by economic 
downturn stemming from peak oil and climate 
change must be doubted. I realised that this 
really is a factor when friends explained to me 
that they could not afford to install solar hot 
water, although they would have preferred to. 
People need funds for discretionary spending, 
even when government rebates are available, to 
install solar water heating, photovotaic panels 
and the rest of the energy and water efficiency 
domestic tech kit. Maybe this is why we see them 
in mainly better off, more affluent suburbs.

The authors say that cities are collective 
entitiesŠ that is, they are more than 
individualised houses and the nuclear or other 
family types inhabiting them. Thus, common 
solutions are what is needed, rather than the 
one-off initiatives of the environmentally 
committed. This might have been what social 
entrepreneur Mitra Aadron was getting at when, 
some time ago, he wrote on the Oceania 
permaculture email discussion list that 
sustainability initiatives have been one-off 
affairs and that a more innovative approach was 
called for to scale-up access to the technologies 
of sustainability for householders. His solution 
was the bulk-buying of the technology of 
household sustainability.

A bleak future for parts of the city
The ruralised city model offers a bleak future 
for those parts of the city unable to grow food 
and fuelwood, harvest and store water and process 
their wastes
Presumably, this would include the denser, inner 
urban ring of urbanisation close to the city 
centres. Yet, it is just this density of 
population that commentators say is needed to 
make public transport economically viable, and 
thus reliable and efficient, and to make those 
places into walkable and cyclable suburbs.

This is a critique of the ruralised city model 
that has been offered by others. They say it has 
little to offer medium density residents at a 
time when more and more people are attracted to 
apartment living or when that is the only type of 
dwelling that is affordableŠ such as with first 
home buyers.

The sustainable city
This is the authors' preferred model. It is 
eco-efficient in regard to energy and water, has 
effective public transportation that includes 
walkable and bicycleable suburbs, viable local 
economies, produces much of its own fresh foods - 
especially in the ecovillages located in what are 
presently the newer, outer suburbs vulnerable to 
peak oil and climate change, and its 
infrastructure is carbon neutral.

If I am allowed to add my bit, I would say that 
the sustainable city is also the wired city in 
which teleworking and teleconferencing replace a 
portion of personal, workplace-related travel. 
High-speed, affordable bandwidth makes this 
possible, as do the technologies of the mobile 
Internet.

It is also the food city, with urban fringe 
market gardens, orchards, poultry farms and 
mushroomeries protected by zoning legislation 
from being overrun by urban development. 
Aquaponic installations exist as small businesses 
within the suburbs as do community gardens for 
their food and social values.

The path
So, how do we avoid the divided city and collapse 
and get to the sustainable city?
You will have to read the book for the detail in 
which the authors describe ten strategic steps 
towards sustainability. They include among these 
the installation of sustainable infrastructure, 
the regeneration of households and 
neighbourhoods, the facilitation of localisation 
and the use of government approvals to regulate 
for a post-oil transition.

For those community associations pursuing the 
Transition approach to a sustainable future, 
Resilient Cities - responding to peak oil and 
climate change will help to bring rigour and 
credibility to their argument. At the same time 
it will challenge them, especially in its 
constructive criticism of David Holmgren's 
scenario of suburban adaptation. This might not 
be received well in some permaculture circles as 
self-criticism has never been a strong feature in 
permaculture and reaction to outside critical 
comment has sometimes been quite defensive rather 
than considerate.

Nonetheless, as the Transition Towns/Transition 
Initiatives movement makes its presence felt more 
keenly in the social marketplace for ideas, 
criticism will become more frequent and more 
pointed. Reading this book in an open frame of 
mind will help such groups revisit their core 
beliefs and ask themselves questions about their 
validity.

Publisher's information
Newman P, Beatley T, Boyer H; 2009; Resilient 
Cities - responding to peak oil and climate 
change; Island Press, Washington DC. 
http://www.resilientcitiesbook.org/


Resilient Cities: Responding to Peak Oil and Climate Change
http://www.resilientcitiesbook.org/
Published: December 2008
by Island Press
166 p. 6 x 9
www.resilientcitiesbook.org/files/documents/RESILIENT%20CITIESnew.pdf
ISBN: 9781597264990
Paperback: $30.00

ISBN: 9781597264983
Hardcover: $60.00

Half of the world's inhabitants now live in 
cities. In the next twenty years, the number of 
urban dwellers will swell to an estimated five 
billion people. With their inefficient 
transportation systems and poorly designed 
buildings, many cities-especially in the United 
States-consume enormous quantities of fossil 
fuels and emit high levels of greenhouse gases. 
But our planet is rapidly running out of the 
carbon-based fuels that have powered urban growth 
for centuries and we seem to be unable to curb 
our greenhouse gas emissions. Are the world's 
cities headed for inevitable collapse?

The authors of this spirited book don't believe 
that oblivion is necessarily the destiny of urban 
areas. Instead, they believe that intelligent 
planning and visionary leadership can help cities 
meet the impending crises, and look to existing 
initiatives in cities around the world. Rather 
than responding with fear (as a legion of 
doomsaying prognosticators have done), they 
choose hope. First, they confront the problems, 
describing where we stand today in our use of oil 
and our contribution to climate change. They then 
present four possible outcomes for cities: 
"collapse," "ruralized,"  "divided," and 
"resilient." In response to their scenarios, they 
articulate how a new "sustainable urbanism" could 
replace today's "carbon-consuming urbanism." They 
address in detail how new transportation systems 
and buildings can be feasibly developed to 
replace our present low efficiency systems. In 
conclusion, they offer ten "strategic steps" that 
any city can take toward greater sustainability 
and resilience.

This is not a book filled with "blue sky" theory 
(although blue skies will be a welcome result of 
its recommendations). Rather, it is packed with 
practical ideas, some of which are already 
working in cities today. It frankly admits that 
our cities have problems that will worsen if they 
are not addressed, but it suggests that these 
problems are solvable. And the time to begin 
solving them is now.

Table Of Contents
Preface

Chapter One: Urban Resilience: Cities of Fear and Hope

Chapter Two: Climate Change and Peak Oil: The 
Double Whammy for Resource-Intensive Cities

Chapter Three: Four Scenarios for the Future of 
Cities: Collapse, Ruralized, Divided, or 
Resilient City

Chapter Four: A Vision for Resilient Cities: The Built Environment

Chapter Five: Hope for Resilient Cities: Transport

Chapter Six: Conclusion: Ten Strategic Steps toward a Resilient City

References
Index

Peter Newman is professor of sustainability at 
Curtin University in Western Australia. He is the 
author of Cities as Sustainable Ecosystems 
(Island Press, 2007) and Sustainability and 
Cities (Island Press, 1999).

Timothy Beatley is Teresa Heinz Professor of 
Sustainable Communities at the University of 
Virginia. His books include Green Urbanism Down 
Under (Island Press, 2008), Green Urbanism 
(Island Press, 2000), and Ecology of Place 
(Island Press, 1997).

Heather Boyer is senior editor at Island Press 
and 2005 Loeb Fellow at the Harvard Graduate 
School of Design.


REVIEWS COMMENTS on  Resilient Cities
"This is the book we city planners have been 
waiting for! Powerful, persuasive, and 
instructive, Resilient Cities offers the first 
comprehensive overview of how to achieve 
sustainability in our cities."
-Eugenie L. Birch, Nussdorf Professor,Department 
of City and Regional Planning, School of Design, 
University of Pennsylvania

"The opportunities of the twenty-first century 
make those of us who care about cities feel like 
kids in a candy store: how will cities survive 
and lead the way in the transformation required 
to combat global warming? Resilient Cities gives 
us a road map fro this epic journey upon which we 
are embarking."
-Greg Nickels, mayor of Seattle,Washington

"Unwilling to accept the collapse of our cities 
as an option, Newman, Beatley, and Boyer have 
created a vision of possibilities, an inspiring 
artist's sketch of potentially viable and 
resilient urban futures."
-William E. Rees, professor,School of Community 
and Regional Planning,University of British 
Columbia
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